Belichick has come a long way

Football Betting Lines

01/30/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Smug, introverted, standoffish.

Those are a few choice words that come to mind when describing New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. There are plenty of other adjectives used to characterize one of the most successful head coaches in the NFL, however, such as knowledgeable, strategic, supportive and meticulous.

And add appreciative and thankful to the list in painting a picture of the man who has made cut-off hoodies a fashion trend in the NFL. Fortunately, Belichick's attire is no match for the product he puts on the football field, though he admitted that "not for a second" could he ever imagined leading a team to its fifth Super Bowl in 11 years.

"I really just try to live in the moment, whatever that is," Belichick said on reminiscing on past accomplishments upon the Patriots' arrival in Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. "Right now, it's here, and I'm happy to be here, believe me. There's no place I'd rather be.

Other points in time, I was dealing with other challenges, other teams and other situations. I tried to do the best I could in those situations with whatever responsibilities I had. I never really thought too much about where it was going to go."

Belichick reflected on his time with the Baltimore Colts, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos and New York Giants during his press conference from the team hotel in Indianapolis on Sunday. He mentioned how time consuming it was in dealing with head coaches and players as an assistant, and noted he never took the time to focus on where it would eventually take him.

He also expressed how vital it was to do your job and take care of business before expecting good things to come out of it. If one fails to do those things, Belichick remarked that "you are not really fulfilling your responsibilities to the team and the organization that is counting on you."

Those traits were fostered in Belichick's early years from his father, Steve, who passed away in 2005 after playing both college football and briefly in the NFL. From the time Bill was only four years old, Steve, who was an assistant coach at Vanderbilt University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the United States Naval Academy, played a major impact on his son's life and his love for football.

The elder Belichick also shared a Gatorade shower with his son, courtesy of linebacker Tedy Bruschi, following a Super Bowl XXXIX win over the Philadelphia Eagles -- the last of three Patriots' championships within a four-year span from 2001-04.

"He had a huge impact on my childhood, my love for the game and my involvement in the game as a coach, even though I played poorly," Bill Belichick said. "It was still a good experience to play, but coaching, really, has always been the love. I think a lot of little things he did [were] in terms of work ethic and teamwork. Being around the Naval Academy, of course, that is a very unique atmosphere, particularly as it relates to football, but the teamwork that comes with that and the commitment that those players and teams have, I saw at a young age."

It's no surprise that Belichick has cradled that teamwork aspect and instilled it within every organization he has been a part of. He was Bill Parcells' defensive coordinator during the New York Giants' first two Super Bowl runs, and many believe that Parcells wouldn't have garnered so much success in the Big Apple had it not been for Belichick's strategies. Belichick's defensive game plan in New York's 20-19 victory over Buffalo in Super Bowl XXV can be found in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Enter the new millennium, and Belichick's Patriots have been a model of consistency and an organization that other coaches and players are trying to emulate. Expert drafts and key additions through free agency have both played their part in advancing New England to where it is today.

Not known to tip his hand or give opposing teams any kind of leverage for an upcoming matchup, Belichick is already toeing the road to the Hall of Fame by amassing a sizzling 17-6 record in his postseason career. He is tied with Joe Gibbs for the third-most playoff wins in NFL history, trailing only Tom Landry (20) and Don Shula (19). By the way, Gibbs, Landry and Shula all have their busts on display in Canton.

Belichick is also one Super Bowl win away from tying Pittsburgh Hall of Famer Chuck Noll with four as a coach. He was asked on Sunday how accomplishing that feat would make him feel.

"It would make me feel pretty good, he said. "It's a great honor to be mentioned in the same conversation with Chuck. Chuck was the coach of the Steelers the first year I was coach of the Browns. I got to know him my first few years in the league. I coached with several coaches who coached under him at Pittsburgh. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Chuck and the job he did with his team and the organization. So, it is very flattering to be mentioned in the same sentence with Chuck Noll."

Much like Noll had with quarterback Terry Bradshaw, Belichick has had Tom Brady at his side throughout all of his success in New England. That may not have happened if it wasn't for former New York Jets linebacker Mo Lewis, who leveled then-New England starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe in Week 2 of the 2001 season, the year the Pats captured their first of back-to-back Super Bowl titles.

Brady has been the man ever since, and both he and Belichick earned their fifth Super Bowl appearance together -- the most ever by a head coach-quarterback duo -- following New England's 23-20 triumph over Baltimore in the 2011 AFC Championship. Noll and Bradshaw went to four.

Once again, the Patriots will have the Giants standing in their way for NFL supremacy when the two teams meet in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Giants, of course, wiped out New England's perfect season back in 2007 with an upset win in Super Bowl XLII, and possess a stout defense that could shake up the Pats' plans for redemption.

Belichick reiterated on several occasions that all of the meetings between the storied franchises in the past carry no weight. He also mentioned how it's all about the current rosters, and that there's not too many coaches and players still around on either side from the previous Super Bowl meeting.

"We are where we are now, and we're different than where we were earlier in the season," said Belichick in referencing New York's 24-20 win over the Patriots back in November. "The Giants are where they are now, and I think they're different than where they were at different points of the season. To take it back years and years before that, I don't think it has too much bearing on anything. The team that wins Sunday will be the team that performs the best. That's what we are trying to strive our preparations for, is maximizing our performance on Sunday night."

As usual, Belichick will put all he has into Sunday's rematch with New York, which is nothing new for a man on the verge of fastening his legacy as a coaching mastermind. It's a foundation of success that was laid when Belichick first learned about the game, and decades later the young boy who sought out advice and knowledge from his father has been passing on that treasure chest of information to his own players and coaches.

With a win on Sunday, perhaps Belichick will finally be able to reflect on where all those years of learning and teaching has taken him.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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